Based on the nomogram, the researchers also created a web-based risk calculator that forecasts the probability of overall and progression-free survival in response to LuPSMA. The predictions are used to stratify men into either high-risk or low-risk groups.

In the men studied, those identified by the tool as low risk had longer overall survival (24 months) and progression-free survival (6 months) than those classified as high risk (6 months and 2 months, respectively).


The findings from the research are encouraging, Gafita said, and may provide the foundation for patient selection for LuPSMA therapy. Nevertheless, he notes, until its clinical validity is demonstrated in prospective trials, the tool should be used cautiously and should not replace the clinical judgement of treating physicians.

"Our validated tool can find application particularly at institutions where LuPSMA is just being introduced as a novel therapeutic option," he said.

The work was supported by the Prostate Cancer Foundation. Gafita was supported by a fellowship grant from the Jonsson Cancer Center and a Dr. Christiaan Schiepers Postdoctoral Fellowship Award.

Other UCLA authors include Dr. Jeremie Calais, Dr. Johannes Czernin, Wesley Armstrong and Pan Thin of the Ahmanson Translational Theranostics Division; Tristan Grogan and David Elashoff of the department of medicine statistics core; and Dr. Matthew Rettig of the department of urology.

Authors from other participating institutions include Drs. Matthias Eiber (senior author) and Robert Tauber of the Technical University of Munich in Germany; Drs. Michael Hofman and Shahneen Sandhu of the Peter MacCallum Cancer Center in Australia; Drs. Wolfgang Fendler, Ken Herrmann and Boris Hadaschik from Essen University Hospital in Germany; Drs. Clemens Kratochwil and Uwe Haberkorn of Heidelberg University Hospital in Germany; and Drs. Ebrahim Delpassand and Rouzbeh Esfandiari of Excel Diagnostics in Houston, Texas.

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