The outlook for machine learning-based image analysis tools also looks far from certain at this juncture. While there has been a clear effort from new vendors in this product segment to adapt their offerings to support COVID screening and diagnosis, the speed of availability of some products calls into question the clinical validity and evidence to support their use. The COVID-19 pandemic could therefore lead to a dichotomy for market development; on one-hand the pandemic has demonstrated the need for use of AI-based image analysis to support under-resourced health systems; yet at the same time, rollout of poorly integrated and unvalidated solutions could risk damaging health provider trust in the use of AI-based image analysis tools, limiting the rate of future adoption post COVID-19.
Vendors remaining stoic in face of decline and hopeful COVID-19 invigorates transformation of health systems and new digital demand Overall, the healthcare technology industry is navigating an uncertain future. Yet in context it remains relatively robust in comparison to many other industry verticals. The sentiment in the financial guidance from the publicly listed vendors and from our discussions with the industry so far all suggest the overall impact will be far from catastrophic. Intriguingly, the market “shock” that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought could also be the catalyst to reshape the sector and drive digital care transformation more quickly than would have been expected pre-pandemic.
For healthcare technology vendors already embarking on a strategy focused on combining imaging hardware, clinical diagnostics and digital platforms, the longer-term outcome will help to temper the short-term pain of declining sales. For less diversified vendors, recent events may force them to adapt to changing customer needs. Business models will also continue to evolve, especially in accelerating a move from capital expenditure heavy-models towards more predictable and robust operational or risk-based contracting agreements and partnerships.
While it is still too soon to speculate as to more detailed long-term predictions, we do expect to see more focus from governments, payers and healthcare providers on the digitalisation of healthcare; interoperability and networking, cloud-architecture, adoption of clinical command centres, telehealth and population health management analytics are all more obvious outcomes, but will take time to be realised.
